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1/18/2008
IRmep Opportunity Cost Analysis
Is the
"Project for a New American
Century" Killing off the US Economy?
The
plunging US economy and drastic efforts by the Bush administration to
stimulate consumption through a
$145 billion package raise an important question, "how did we get
into such dire economic straits?"
In the year 2000, neoconservative ideologues
called for a major overhaul of US military strategy in their policy
paper "Rebuilding
America's Defenses" (PDF). This followed their
1998 call for the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq on "weapons of
mass destruction" pretexts. The overall economic implications
have been disastrous. Core goals for the incoming Bush
administration mandated by PNAC advisors included securing forward
military bases in the Middle East and increasing military spending from
3% to 4% of GDP (absent some catalyzing "Pearl Harbor" type event).
9/11 and the subsequent "Global War on Terror" have provided their
pretext for a radical increase in US military spending to finance US
occupations in Iraq and Afghanistan and hostile posturing toward Iran.
This resource misallocation has reverberated throughout the entire
economy,
cutting off investment in growth industries and overall middle class
American wealth creation. While it is highly debatable whether
the administration's ground wars in the Middle East have increased
American security, the long term economic impact of run-away military
spending no longer carries any mystery:
- Military spending
(cited from the
OMB
financial statements) will consume 6% of Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) in 2008, double the level of the 1990's.
- Military spending
will have grown on average 13.36% per year (2001-2008) while the US
economy has only grown 2.24% per year.
- Tax revenues
collected from individuals increased 6% per year over the last five
years, while tax revenues from businesses have grown 23% per year to
pay for increased military spending; this still has not been enough
to close the yawning budget deficit.
- Military spending
will contribute to a US budget deficit of $10 trillion by 2010 (if
not sooner) double the 1997 deficit.
- Mismanagement and
malfeasance (including corrupted mortgage markets) and military
industrial resource misallocation has hobbled the US economy to a
forecast rate of only
1.2% GDP growth in 2008, a quarter the growth level of the year
1999.
This is the end
result of the "Global War on Terror" and policies of the "New American
Century". Louder and even more vacuous calls to "support the
troops" and other red herring can no longer hide the massive damage
wrought upon American households and businesses. |